Putin casts shadow on Japan's hopes for island return

Abe to visit Russia in January, seeking to accelerate talks toward peace treaty

November 16, 2018 05:00 JST

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a news conference Thursday in Singapore. Putin raised questions about the details of a 1956 declaration to be used as a basis for peace treaty negotiations with Japan.   
TOKYO/MOSCOW -- One day after Japan and Russia agreed to accelerate talks toward a long-delayed peace treaty, efforts to settle the territorial dispute that has long blocked a pact have already run into their first potential stumbling block.

The 1956 joint declaration notes that the Soviet Union is ready to cede two of the southern Kuril Islands to Japan, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Russian reporters in Singapore on Thursday. But "it says nothing about specific legal grounds for ceding these islands, their subsequent jurisdiction or the procedure for handing them over to Japan," he added, immediately dampening Japan's hopes for progress.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, for his part, seeks to strike while the iron is hot, planning a string of summits in quick succession in hopes of getting the treaty done soon. He is set to visit Russia in late January, around the time of a trip to the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The two leaders will also meet on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit starting Nov. 30 in Argentina.

The dispute over the four southernmost Kuril Islands, which Russia administers and Japan claims as the Northern Territories, has kept Japan and Russia from signing a formal World War II peace treaty. Under the 1956 Joint Declaration of Japan and the USSR, the Soviet Union agreed to hand over two of the four islands in question -- Shikotan and Habomai -- after a treaty is concluded.

Putin and Abe had said Wednesday that they would proceed with talks on this basis, but the Russian leader's comments Thursday indicate that even sovereignty over the islands to be transferred will need to be negotiated.

The prime minister and Putin "affirmed their strong determination to put an end to the matter themselves," Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters Thursday.

Tokyo is considered to be aiming to secure the transfer of Shikotan and Habomai first, with a settlement on the other two islands to follow later. With Putin due to visit Japan for a G-20 summit next June, shortly before upper house elections, Abe presumably hopes to have concrete results to show voters.

Japan's pivot to the 1956 declaration as a basis for negotiations follows a failure to reach a breakthrough on the territorial question, including through the "new approach" of using joint economic activity to encourage progress that Abe and Putin agreed to in 2016.

Tokyo's previous insistence on settling the status of all four islands before signing a treaty was also doing nothing to draw Moscow to the table. This time, Tokyo decided to change tactics. Focusing on the fact that Putin has repeatedly cited the 1956 declaration as a binding document based on international law and signed by both parties, the Japanese side proposed peace talks based on that document.

Though many in Japan are urging the government to demand all four, a two-island deal may at least be accepted as the minimum realistic outcome, depending on how the idea goes over with the public.

At the same time, Japan hopes to nudge talks along further through economic cooperation with Russia and joint economic projects on the disputed islands. Tokyo probably will look to expand industrial development in Russia's Far East and cooperation on energy -- two items high on Moscow's wish list -- as well as urge more investment by Japanese companies.

In Singapore, the Russian leader repeated that the current territorial demarcation and state border agreements were reached after World War II. "As you know, Japan has a different perspective on this issue. We are ready to work with them," he added.

Japan's push for negotiations based on the 1956 agreement -- deviating from its long-held stance of resolving the status of all four islands first -- probably came as a surprise to Putin.

Before this, some in Moscow had become puzzled by the Abe government's eagerness to give an impression of progress on the territorial dispute after each summit with Putin. "Why get Japanese hopes up unnecessarily?" one senior official complained.

Putin himself has said on numerous occasions that years of trust-building would be needed to settle the issue, citing border disputes with China that took decades to resolve.

Thursday's remarks probably were made with the Russian public in mind as well. Unpopular pension changes and a lackluster economy have eroded Putin's support. His foreign policy centering on a "strong Russia" is his best remaining option for maintaining his tight grip on the reins.

Given this, ceding two islands or four might further damage his approval rating. Even Abe's comments about looking forward to progress on the issue pose a risk.

Russian media argued Thursday that the agreement to accelerate negotiations was meaningless and that Japan's stance had in fact not changed at all. Many outlets opted not to pass judgment, as Abe's remarks after the summit did not make clear whether or not Tokyo would settle for two islands.

Saki Hayashi in Tokyo and Tomoyo Ogawa in Moscow contributed to this report.